MUNICH, GERMANY – OCTOBER 31: Empty chairs and tables stand outdoors a restaurant in entrance of the opera home the place sporting masks is obligatory throughout the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic on October 31, 2020 in Munich, Germany. The German authorities just lately introduced that efficient this coming Monday, November 2, all eating places, bars, cultural venues, cinemas, health studios and sports activities halls should shut for 4 weeks in an effort to rein in the skyrocketing development in the variety of every day infections that just lately reached 18,000. Stores, faculties and day care facilities will stay open. (Photo by Andreas Gebert/Getty Images) – Andreas Gebert/Getty Images Europe
A brand new research by German scientists claims to have discovered proof that lockdowns could have had little impact on controlling the coronavirus pandemic.
Statisticians at Munich University discovered “no direct connection” between the German lockdown and falling an infection charges in the nation.
Instead, the research discovered an infection charges had already clearly begun to fall earlier than a nationwide lockdown was imposed final November.
It additionally discovered clear proof the speed was already falling on the 2 events the lockdown was tightened, in December and April.
The research targeted on the R quantity, which signifies how many individuals every contaminated individual passes the virus to. The scientists argue it’s much less simply distorted by fluctuating check charges than the weekly an infection charges utilized by the German authorities to resolve lockdown restrictions.
The research discovered that on every event the R quantity was already below 1 earlier than the brand new restrictions got here into pressure, indicating that infections had been falling. The lockdown has since been lifted throughout many of the nation.
“The measures taken could have had a positive effect on the course of the infection, but are not solely responsible for the decline,” the research’s authors wrote.
The research was rapidly seized on by lockdown opponents, however its authors had been at pains to emphasize they weren’t making a political argument.
“You can’t tell from the data that the lockdown was unnecessary,” Prof Ralph Brinks, one of many research’s co-authors, instructed German tv.
“All that it shows is that the start of lockdown and the fall in infections do not coincide.” Germany went into “lockdown lite”, with eating places and bars closed however non-essential outlets open, on November 2.
It went into full lockdown on December 16, and restrictions had been tightened on April 23 below Angela Merkel’s “emergency brake”.
While no one has disputed the research’s figures, different scientists argued the controversy over lockdown could have contributed to the autumn in infections.
Thorsten Lehr, professor of medical pharmacy at Saarland University, instructed German tv public discussions over impending lockdown measures could have influenced folks to vary their behaviour and meet others much less.